As the radio industry gears up for its first ratings survey of 2025, expectations are being tempered by realism.
With the dust settling on a tumultuous 2024, industry eyes are keenly focused on whether established giants will maintain their dominance or if new contenders will emerge.
Mediaweek Australia delves into the predictions and key talking points surrounding this highly anticipated release, drawing on insights from radio expert Craig Bruce.
Radio expert Craig Bruce
Jase & Lauren hold Melbourne
Last year delivered one of the most closely watched shifts in Australian radio history, as the Australian Radio Network’s (ARN) The Kyle & Jackie O Show expanded into Melbourne via KIIS 101.1.
The Sydney duo entered the market with high hopes, but the move cost them over 200,000 in cume.
“Having lost more than 200,000 in cume in 2024, the best Kyle and Jackie O can hope is the ship’s steadying,” Bruce notes, highlighting the challenges faced by the duo in establishing a foothold in a new market.
The question remains, as Bruce states, “whether any radio show from Sydney can ever work in Melbourne. The answer will likely be no based on last year’s emphatic result.”
In contrast, Jase & Lauren on Nova 100 maintained a dominant position and are widely tipped, by Bruce, to hold the #1 breakfast spot in Melbourne again. The pair finished 2024 as the city’s number one breakfast show with an 11.5 share.
“In Melbourne, it’s hard to see any significant changes after a year in which listeners have found their feet with the new landscape,” he observes.
Meanwhile, stations like Gold 104.3 and Fox FM are expected to round out the top three. Triple M Melbourne has also rolled out a new breakfast show, and while early days, Bruce believes the goal will be retention rather than revolution.
Kyle and Jackie O’s continued Sydney dominance
Despite their struggles in Melbourne, Kyle and Jackie O are predicted to continue their FM dominance in the harbour city. The pair ended 2024 with 13.5% share, taking home the FM breakfast crown.
Bruce suggests their content adjustments, tailored to appeal to a broader audience, will further solidify their position. “They have adjusted their content this year to be much more appealing to their Melbourne audience, and the end result is that the show sounds much better, so there’s no reason why the Sydney results won’t reflect this,” he explains.
However, Bruce acknowledges the brand damage incurred in 2024. “They have improved but did so much damage to the brand last year,” he cautions.
The long game begins
Across the country, numerous new breakfast combinations launched in the lead up to Survey 1, including Nova Brisbane, 2Day FM, and Triple M Sydney. Bruce, however, anticipates a slow burn for these new shows.
“Many new breakfast combinations have launched nationwide but I don’t think we’ll see any of these shows have a dramatic impact in the first half of this year,” he predicts.
“Breakfast is a long game,” he adds. “It’s about consistent performance over time. Audiences rarely change their station unless they’re forced to.”
Bruce went on to highlight the enduring success of established shows like Jonesy & Amanda, and Fitzy & Wippa with Kate Ritchie, all poised for strong showings in 2025. “Radio audiences rarely change their favourite breakfast show or radio station unless they have to,” he concludes.