If there’s something about radio Craig Bruce doesn’t know … it’s probably not worth knowing.
Bruce started in radio back in 1986 and since then he’s played a role in the success of some of Australia’s biggest broadcasters – including Kyle Sandilands, Jackie ‘O’ Henderson, Hamish Blake and Andy Lee.
It was Bruce who, back in 2004, convinced Kyle & Jackie O to make the switch from afternoons to breakfast on Southern Cross Austereo’s (SCA) 2DayFM. The rest is history.
Bruce now spends his time teaching others about strategic radio programming and podcasting, while still finding time to dissect the current Australian radio industry. In fact, it’s something he’s so passionate about, he even started a podcast called Game Changers: Melbourne Radio Wars.
Intrigued about his predictions for 2025, Mediaweek sat down with Bruce who didn’t hold back on his thoughts about how the rest of the radio year will pan out.
Craig Bruce.
Melbourne
“I still think there’s probably room for Jase & Lauren to grow,” said Bruce. He is, of course, referring to Nova 100’s Jase & Lauren, who finished 2024 as Melbourne’s number one breakfast show with an 11.5 share.
“Radio is a game of momentum. They absolutely have that. They’ve got the wind at their backs and they’ve got, it feels like a genuine support from the market,” he added.
The momentum Bruce is referring to kicked-off when the pair were axed by The Australian Radio Network (ARN) to make way for the Kyle & Jackie O Show, now networked from Sydney.
Nova 100 quickly snapped them up, in turn, pinning them against the very show that led to their dumping. The decision has proven to be a stroke of genius for the station and a lesson in audience loyalty, with Jase & Lauren storming to the top of the ratings charts.
It’s a trend Bruce predicts will continue right throughout 2025. “I expect them to dominate the market this year for no other reason than they are sounding excellent,” he said.
Nova 100’s Jase & Lauren.
“I would suggest there is still room for growth or, at the very least, they will maintain the sorts of incredibly strong numbers they already have. You know, they’ve got a cume in the odd 700,000s which is comparable with what Kyle and Jackie are doing in Sydney.
“And just with a little more TSL (time spent listening), you can turn that recipe from a 12 into a 13, 14 or even 15, pretty easily,” he said.
As for Kyle & Jackie O, Bruce believes ARN’s networking dream is gradually turning into a nightmare – one nobody could have predicted. “I think before the launch in 2024 the team would’ve discussed their best and worst case scenarios and I think the worst case scenario has come through for them,” he said.
To make matters worse, Bruce believes any attempts to salvage the brand may fall on deaf ears. “The brand is really badly damaged in Melbourne,” he said.
Kyle and Jackie O have recently changed their advertising approach after Melbourne’s ratings disaster.
“It’s going to take a very long time for audiences to give them a second chance. Now, whether that can happen or not, I’m not sure, but it’s going to be really difficult, and there’s going to need to be a level of consistency.
“If there’s a promise the show is going to be less explicit and more mainstream and more open for broader audiences then they need to deliver on every single break, every single day.
“Even though the show has improved in the last 10 to 12 weeks, there’s still a long way to go and still too many opportunities for any new listener coming in hearing the show and hearing something that’s just not palatable for women in their cars with kids, which is essentially the target audience.”
Sydney
While The Kyle & Jackie O Show may be in a ratings free fall in Melbourne, the Sydney market offers a different story altogether, with the pair ending the year with a 13.5% share – taking home the breakfast crown.
But that could all change… and through no fault of their own.
Earlier this week co-host Kyle Sandilands revealed he’s set for immediate brain surgery after being diagnosed with a brain aneurysm, adding that the recovery process could sideline him for up to eight weeks.
“For ARN’s sake, let’s hope it’s just a short term challenge,” Bruce said. “But I think that in terms of who might go into the show … that’ll be an interesting decision.”
Jonesy & Amanda can be heard on GOLD101.7.
Bruce has saved his (arguably) most controversial take till last predicting that 2025 will be the last year audiences will hear Jonesy & Amanda on ARN’s GOLD network.
“I believe they are out of contract at the end of this year, but when I spoke to them recently for the Game Changers podcast, they sounded as connected and as committed as ever. Their ratings are also as strong as they’ve ever been.
“So, if I was at SCA I would be looking at Jonesy & Amanda and thinking, wow, that could fix a 10 year problem they’ve had at 2Day breakfast,” Bruce said.
The problem Bruce is referring to is the merry-go-round of breakfast shows SCA has experimented with over the past few years. To date, they’ve had seven different breakfast show variations since 2013.
While their current show, Jimmy & Nath Plus Emma Chow has got the backing off SCA chief content officer Dave Cameron, Bruce believes the lure of the potentially off-contract radio legends may be too hard to resist.
“Look, at the moment at ARN, there’s branding changes that have already happened with GOLD being nationalised. If they take that next step with breakfast and network Melbourne’s Christian O’Connell (who hosts the breakfast show on GOLD104.3) in for Sydney, then a Jonesy & Amanda breakfast show on 2DayFM, with a format that sounds like GOLD, would be something that could work.”
Although, despite his enviable credentials, Bruce is quick to remind that soothsayer isn’t one of them.
“Look,” he laughed, “I’m an outsider looking in, so I could be wrong on all of this”.