Overall ad revenue in Australia is expected to end the year at 2.2% to $25.2b in 2024, followed by a projected growth of 3.7% in 2025, which will be strengthened by federal election spending, according to GroupM’s End-of-Year Global Advertising Forecast.
WPP’s media investment group published the topline findings of its End-of-Year Global Advertising Forecast for 2024, analysed advertising investments over the last 12 months and shared projections for 2025 and beyond.
Retail Media continues its steep trajectory in the advertising landscape, according to GroupM, and is forecast to grow 26.5% in 2024 ($1.46 billion) and 28.1% in 2025.
Internet advertising is projected to grow by 5.1% to $18.1 billion, representing 71.7% of the total market in 2024. In contrast, total television is expected to decline -8.2% to $3.48bn in 2024.
GroupM forecasts that television ad revenue will stabilise in 2026/2027, halting the major downward trend. While linear TV will be back -11.7%, the overall Total TV decline is tempered by the continued robust growth of Video on Demand, which is forecast to remain healthy at 15.3% ($579m). 2025 is expected to see -3.5% decline.
Audio remains flat in 2024 at $ $1.24bn, but in 2025, audio is expected to head back into growth with a 1.3% growth forecast.
OOH will see 7.3% growth through 2024, reaching $1.246 billion, with 5.4% growth expected in 2025. Meanwhile, cinema will grow to +2.6% in 2024 to $117m, buoyed by end-of-year releases Moana 2, Wicked and Gladiator II, with stronger growth forecast in the coming years.
Melissa Hey, GroupM chief investment officer, said: “Despite the ongoing cost-of-living crisis dominating headlines, the Australian ad market remains resilient, though minimal growth projected in 2024 reflects continued caution. While consumers are growing more optimistic about the broader economic outlook, this sentiment may not fully translate to increased ad spending in the short term.
“Tax cuts implemented in July 2024, combined with energy relief measures, could boost consumer spending and reignite inflationary pressures. The outlook hinges on a potential interest rate cut in the first half of 2025. These economic factors, along with federal election ad spending, will be crucial for sustaining growth momentum in the coming year.”