Government ad spend continues to ramp up as election date now set

Australian advertising demand continues to recover, with Guideline SMI’s latest data revealing February ad spend was down just 0.5% year-on-year. This is a strong showing in a market now clearly influenced by the upcoming Federal Election.

Among major media channels, Outdoor continued its winning streak with the highest dollar growth (+9.2%), followed by Radio (+3.4%) and Newspapers (+2.4%). Cinema recorded the largest percentage uplift of nearly 21%, while Digital bookings were still tracking 3% down, pending late Search and Programmatic additions, which may yet push February into the black.

Guideline SMI APAC managing director Jane Ractliffe said the imminent Federal Election was the major driver of February’s uplift, with Government category ad spend soaring 46% year-on-year, adding $12 million in extra demand.

Guideline SMI AU: Feb 2025 Ad spend trends. [click to expand.]

“SMI’s Forward Pacings data shows now that the election has been called, spend is shifting from the Government category into Political Parties and Industry Associations, particularly in March and April,” Ractliffe said.

“We’re already seeing an extra $8 million committed to TV by Political Parties in March and another $6 million in April – pushing total March ad demand ten percentage points higher than this time last year.”

When the additional Government spend is stripped out of the February total, the underlying market was down 2.7% YoY. Still, Outdoor remained a standout performer (+8.7%), and press stayed marginally positive (+0.7%).

Beyond government, Insurance brands also lifted their presence (+15.1%), while the Household Supplies category surged a massive 64% YoY. However, the Automotive category continued to weigh down overall results, declining 10%.

The February 2025 figures mark a noticeable turnaround from the same month last year, when ad spend fell 6% YoY. At that time, Digital was down 3.1%, TV dropped 13%, and Outdoor showed only marginal resilience, off 0.4%. This year’s near-flat result, bolstered by election activity and stronger media sector performance, suggests stabilisation and renewed momentum in the market.

For the financial year to date, the market has now moved back into positive territory (+0.5% YoY), buoyed by strong performances in Digital (+5.8%), Outdoor (+4.7%), and Cinema (+10.5%).

Across the Tasman, New Zealand continues to show even stronger momentum. February marked the fourth straight month of ad growth, with spend up 4.2% YoY. Outdoor rose 22.8%, and Radio lifted 16.8%.

“The New Zealand market is finally shaking off its post-COVID slump and is now delivering sustained growth,” Ractliffe said.

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